Status
3Needs attention
- shadowshadow archive has recorded nothing for 11 days
- shadow122 shadow forecast(s) ungraded over 48h after kickoff
- diskabout 5 weeks of disk runway left
Non-blocking reconcile warnings: WARN missing close: pick 9e4b8666e58c settled on last-seen price (flagged) — check the closing-line poller
This week's card
10paper — unvalidated · stakes are the ¼-Kelly column of a fresh $100 weekly buy-in · prices are the board price at lock time, not fills
Thursday 30 July1
- 21:50North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney RoostersPendingVictor Radley (Sydney Roosters)propmodel onlyodds7.25stake$0.17model17%marketn/aedge+12.6%
Friday 31 July2
- 22:00Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury BulldogsPendingMelbourne Storm +7.5linemodel onlyodds1.80stake$4.81model81%market52%edge+45.9%
- 22:00Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury BulldogsPendingJosh King (Melbourne Storm)propmodel onlyodds10.50stake$0.11model12%marketn/aedge+12.5%
Saturday 1 August5
- 15:25St. George Illawarra Dragons Women vs Sydney Roosters WomenPendingUnder 49.5totalmodel onlyodds1.78stake$5.05model83%market54%edge+47.0%
- 17:00Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand WarriorsPendingNew Zealand Warriors -2.5linemodel onlyodds1.70stake$2.50model71%market55%edge+20.9%
- 17:15Canberra Raiders Women vs North Queensland Cowboys WomenPendingNorth Queensland Cowboys Women +19.5linemodel onlyodds1.75stake$5.41model85%market55%edge+48.4%
- 19:30Penrith Panthers vs Canberra RaidersPendingPenrith Panthers -6.5linemodel onlyodds1.70stake$1.50model66%market55%edge+12.6%
- 19:30Penrith Panthers vs Canberra RaidersPendingPaul Alamoti (Penrith Panthers)propmodel onlyodds2.90stake$0.51model41%marketn/aedge+11.4%
Sunday 2 August2
- 16:00Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney RabbitohsPendingUnder 51.5totalmodel onlyodds1.78stake$1.91model66%market52%edge+17.8%
- 18:05Wests Tigers vs Parramatta EelsPendingWests Tigers +9.5linemodel onlyodds1.77stake$3.04model72%market53%edge+27.9%
20 further ledger rows for this week are voided — a superseded lock is voided wholesale and re-locked rather than edited, so those rows remain visible but contribute nothing.
Best bets
5Snapshot at the last refresh, not a locked card · odds above $2.00, spread across sports and markets · not written to the ledger and not scored
Friday 31 July1
- 22:00Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury BulldogsMelbourne Stormh2hodds2.65stake$7.79model70%market36%edge+84.5%
Sunday 2 August4
- 13:35Canterbury Bulldogs Women vs Brisbane Broncos WomenLauren Dam (Brisbane Broncos Women)propmodel onlyodds3.00stake$3.63model49%market33%edge+28.0%
- 16:00Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney RabbitohsUnder 48.5totalmodel onlyodds2.02stake$2.46model58%market46%edge+16.5%
- 17:15Parramatta Eels Women vs Newcastle Knights WomenNewcastle Knights Women -8.5linemodel onlyodds2.10stake$6.40model70%market45%edge+46.3%
- 18:05Wests Tigers vs Parramatta EelsWests Tigers +5.5linemodel onlyodds2.10stake$4.72model64%market45%edge+34.1%
Performance
| market | bets | W-L | turnover | P&L | yield | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nrlh2h | 14 | 1-1 | $2.98 | -$0.24 | -8.1% | -3.49%n=2 |
| nrlline | 17 | 2-3 | $10.47 | -$2.60 | -24.8% | -2.12%n=5 |
| nrlprop | 11 | 2-2 | $3.52 | +$2.25 | +63.9% | +0.69%n=4 |
| nrltotal | 3 | 0-0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | n/a | n/an=0 |
| nrlwh2h | 4 | 0-1 | $2.30 | -$2.30 | -100.0% | n/an=0 |
| nrlwline | 9 | 2-3 | $19.34 | -$5.85 | -30.3% | +6.63%n=3 |
| nrlwprop | 4 | 0-1 | $1.60 | -$1.60 | -100.0% | -2.04%n=1 |
| nrlwtotal | 1 | 0-0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | n/a | n/an=0 |
| wc2026line | 3 | 0-0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | n/a | n/an=0 |
| wc2026total | 5 | 2-0 | $9.78 | +$2.89 | +29.6% | n/an=0 |
Excluded from realised figures: 41 void, 10 unsettled. Excluded from CLV: 5 graded bet(s) without a validated close, of which 1 have no close at all.
By week
One card is locked per NZ betting week, so the week is the period. Tap a cell for its detail.
Cumulative P&L
Paper ledger only, in dollars. The shadow archive has no stakes and is measured in flat units, so it is never drawn on this axis.
Calibration
Paper ledger
20 settled locked selections. Scored regardless of any placement decision.
| bin | n | predicted | observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.3 | 1 | 25% | 0% |
| 0.3-0.4 | 3 | 35% | 67% |
| 0.5-0.6 | 3 | 56% | 33% |
| 0.6-0.7 | 6 | 65% | 17% |
| 0.7-0.8 | 4 | 73% | 75% |
| 0.8-0.9 | 1 | 85% | 0% |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 92% | 100% |
Shadow archive
771 settled forecasts — the sample large enough to say something. Diagnostic, not realised: flat-unit return -17.2%.
| bin | n | predicted | observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.1 | 285 | 4% | 7% |
| 0.1-0.2 | 126 | 15% | 21% |
| 0.2-0.3 | 88 | 25% | 26% |
| 0.3-0.4 | 81 | 34% | 42% |
| 0.4-0.5 | 74 | 46% | 36% |
| 0.5-0.6 | 72 | 54% | 56% |
| 0.6-0.7 | 32 | 64% | 59% |
| 0.7-0.8 | 5 | 73% | 80% |
| 0.8-0.9 | 8 | 85% | 88% |
A slope near 1.0 is well calibrated; the charter treats a slope materially off 1.0 after a refit as a rebuild-or-drop signal. Positive Brier skill means beating the de-vigged market probability.
Round Chase
1Real money, $50 buy-in per NZ week, placed manually at TAB. Cash carries day to day as the literal wallet position, so a losing day leaves the next one less to work with. Never model evidence and never summed into paper P&L.
Distance to real money
0Paper only
SHARP_REFERENCE_REQUIRED; human approval is always required for live betting
0 of 100 eligible settled grades in epoch epoch-paper-2026-07-15 · 100 to go
- 40 per sport/market family0 families with any evidencenot met
- 100 eligible settled paper grades0 of 100not met
- positive mean CLV with a positive 95% lower boundmean n/a, lower n/anot met
- reconcile completely clean, warnings included1 anomaly/iesnot met
- a sharp de-vigged closing referencenot yet captured at scalenot met
Stages
- paperactivethe weekly $100 locked card; every lane is paper until a human approves otherwise
- micro-liveavailable per lane$1 per manually confirmed TAB bet, $10 per NZ week, separate ledger
- bankroll ladderon hold$200 -> $400 -> ... remains suspended pending the broad evidence gate
Per-lane micro-live readiness
Each sport, market family, model family, policy version and calibration identity qualifies independently. A ready lane authorises only the capped $1 stage, and only after an explicit human approval.
| lane | status | qualified | fixtures | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nrlh2h/nrl_elo_logistic | Collecting | 1/20 | 1/10 | +4.28% |
| nrlline/nrl_margin_normal | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| nrlprop/nrl_try_shrinkage | Collecting | 5/30 | 3/12 | -2.27% |
| nrltotal/nrl_total_baseline | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| nrlwh2h/nrlw_elo_logistic | Collecting | 1/30 | 1/12 | -8.00% |
| nrlwline/nrlw_margin_normal | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| nrlwprop/nrlw_try_shrinkage | Collecting | 10/30 | 3/12 | +4.07% |
| nrlwtotal/nrlw_total_baseline | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| wc2026h2h/wc_dixon_coles_1x2 | Collecting | 4/30 | 3/12 | -4.01% |
| wc2026line/wc_dixon_coles_score_grid | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| wc2026prop/wc_scorer_goal_share | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
| wc2026total/wc_dixon_coles_score_grid | Collecting | 0/30 | 0/12 | n/a |
Eligibility is strict: paper mode, W/L, placed and settled inside the active epoch, a validated close, automatic settlement, and a model bundle that still verifies. Anything else is counted as an exclusion, never quietly included.